This thought will probably become a column someday. I was the big blind in a $30-$60 hold’em game. One weak player (WP) limped in middle position, and the small blind, a mediocre player who thinks he is a pro, completed from the small blind. I had A8 offsuit and decided to raise. I thought I likely held the best hand, would not get action if an ace flopped and, most importantly, the small blind might fold if I raised. WP called and the small blind folded. On the flop of Ah7d7h, I led out and was called. The 8h on the turn gave me two pair but put a possible flush out there. Since I was up against only one guy, I bet. He called again. On the river, another ace hit, and I bet again. WP raised, I re-raised, he called. I showed my nut full house and he showed A9.

The question is, can his raise be useful against a good player? If I have an ace, we will split. If I don’t, I will almost certainly fold. So the only time his raise makes a difference is when I happen to have one of the two hands he can’t beat (A8 or 77). This is wildly unlikely, but it can happen.

The effect of this sort of raise is even more exaggerated at No Limit. Now, a raise with an almost nut hand can leave you facing a massive reraise.

When raising on the river with a non-nut hand, you need to make sure your opponent might have a losing hand he can call with.

In 2004, I joined Dan Negreanu, Lee Jones, Mike Caro, Doyle Brunson, Jennifer Harman, Roy Cooke, Linda Johnson, Mark Tenner and George Epstein in presenting material for the World Poker Players Conference, held at the Bellagio. My seminar topic was “Maximize Your Poker Profits by Thinking Strategically.” I spent an hour helping the audience understand how experts think about hands.

This entire day was filmed and is available as a dvd.

News about the 2005 World Poker Players Conference should be coming soon. I will post it here when it is.

Recently, I was sitting next to a snappily attired young player who put in a raise or two on the flop with a nut flush draw. After the hand, which he won by making the flush, someone said to him, “Nice raising on the flop.” He launched into a speech telling us how the math of the situation gave him a positive expected value (+EV) situation on the flop. He really was enjoying his own lecture.

While I do not give poker lessons at the table, I do sometimes offer behavior lessons. I leaned over and quietly told him, “Look. Everyone who knows the game already knows how smart you are. Everyone else is just learning more about poker. Just make the play, stack the chips, and don’t talk about it.” To his credit, he nodded, piped down, and stacked the chips.

You should never discuss or explain a play at the table. If you happen to be right, all you do is make your opponents better. If you are wrong (and many frequent explainers are), you simply look foolish.