So many topics I want to discuss here. But this week I decided to quickly talk about a classic bluff, because it makes a key point.

I held pocket threes in late position. Everyone folded to me. Whether to play this hand or muck it depends on the nature of the players behind you, and in the blind. You do not want loose calls or aggressive three-bets. You want well-behaved, preferably tight players if you are going to play. And if you are, you should raise. I had the right combination, so I raised.

The big blind called, and the flop came 974, which might be OK if he had a hand like KQ. He checked, I bet and he check-raised. This was bad, of course, and I probably should have folded right there, as I was not getting the price to try to hit a three and I felt it likely he had a pair.

But I had an alternate plan, which I got to employ when a an offsuit king fell on the turn. He bet and I raised. He agonized for a while, but finally mucked. As always, I consoled him by telling him I got lucky that the king came. And that was lucky, as my plan was to raise if an A, K, Q, or 3 came, and fold otherwise.

The basis of the plan though is I always keep in mind not only what I actually have, but what the other guy thinks I have. I tell students “You are guilty of looking at your hand,” which means they focus on what they have rather on what the other guy believes they have.

So this week’s thought is to always keep track of the hands you might have and might represent as well as what you in fact hold. Please note that this does not mean you should always bluff, or that your bluffs will always win (mine sure don’t). But if you do not understand what picture you are painting, you will never be able to sell one.