A quick note on value betting on the river today. At limit hold’em and limit poker in general, I am a major advocate of river value betting. Most of the reasons are outlined in my article “Ten Common and Costly Limit Hold’em Errors, Part 4” available on CardPlayer .com (just click on the logo in the left margin). I love value betting. On the other hand, value betting at No Limit Hold’em, and NL poker in general, is a very high risk proposition.

By definition, value betting means betting a hand you think might be best, but is far from the nuts. In limit, the worst thing that can happen is you get raised, call, and lose two extra bets. In NL, a value bet by you can be followed by a huge raise, causing you to fold. Even if this happens rarely, it can make you a loser overall. Assume you have deep stacks, and you have pretty good hand. The pot is $500, and you think you can get your opponent to make a crying call of $100 most of the time. Well, if you are successful 80% of the time, but the other 20% you face a big raise and have to fold a hand you might have won had you checked, you are a net loser. (Note that in limit, you would be a winner under this scenario because you could simply pay off the bet. Even if you always lose when you call, winning the extra bet 80% of the time makes you a winner).

Of course, if your reading skills are such that you will always lay down your hand when it is a loser but call the big bet when the other guy is bluffing, you can value bet all you want. But if you feel when you value bet the river that you can’t call a big raise, you probably would be better off forgoing the extra “profit”.