Today a few words about advanced NL tournament strategy in response to a student who sent me the following and asked, “What is going on here?”

Time: 2006-01-22 12:45:00 Title: Gary Gibbs Eliminated in 10th Place ($34,610.50) Log: Gary Gibbs raises to $48,000 from the cutoff position, and Gavin Smith calls from the button. The flop comes Ks-Qc-5h, Gibbs bets $65,000, and Smith calls. The turn card is the 7s, Gibbs bets $150,000, and Smith calls. The river card is the 9s, Gibbs checks, Smith bets $400,000, and Gibbs moves all in for about $650,000. Smith calls, showing 10s-8s (ten-high flush), and Gibbs shows 8d-6s (nine-high straight). Gavin Smith wins the biggest pot of the tournament, and Gary Gibbs is eliminated in tenth place.

Because Karlo Lopez and Gary Gibbs were eliminated on the same hand (but different tables), they will combine and chop 10th and 11th place money. Both players will go home with $34,610.50.

OK, so what really is happening here? What are these two guys doing betting and calling with nothing at all? I have no way to know what is going on in their heads, but I shall take a shot at it. Since both names start with “Ga” I hall call Gibbs “Gi” and Smith “Sm.”

Gi: I am one off the button. Everyone is playing pretty tight trying to make the final table, and I need some chips anyway, so I will raise here and steal the blinds and antes. After all, someone has to.

Sm: Gi raised here, but he will do that with almost anything trying to steal. I don’t want to re-raise and risk a bunch of chips in case one of the blinds wakes up with a real hand and comes over the top, making me fold. I have a pretty good hand to call here, and with my position, I should be able to take this pot away from Gi much of the time. Plus I may flop a miracle.

(Flop comes KsQc5h)

Gi: I missed the flop but there is only one opponent and chances are he missed too. I must make a reasonable continuation bet here, as he will probably give up if he missed, or even if he has middle pair. If he calls or raises, I will just give up on the hand.

SM: I missed and he is betting but of course he will pretty much always bet. I will risk a call here and see what he does on the turn. If he missed the flop, he will probably check and fold the turn, as my call will look scary to him.

(Turn is 7s)

Gi: Sm’s call was scary, but I just picked up an open-end straight draw, and I have eight outs to make a real hand and possibly double through. Plus, if I bet he will see that as very strong and fold many hands he would call with on the flop to see if I really have strength. Had I missed the turn I would have given up, but this draw now calls for firing a second barrel. I’ll bet roughly half the pot.

Sm: Well, he bet again, so he must really have something. However, I just picked up a well-hidden flush draw. His bet of $150,000 is pricing me out (about half the pot), but if hit my flush, there is a s good chance he will give me the whole $650,ooo he has left So I really calling $150K in an attempt to win over a million. I know I am drawing but my flush will be well hidden and his turn bet shows a lot of strength.

(River 9s)

Gi: Holy cow I made my straight. He will never believe it. Now how to get a lot of money off of him? I can just push all in, but that will probably scare him off top pair and I want a big reward for my miracle catch. If I bet a little, I will probably get called but I want a bigger payoff. I will check! He will bet most of his hands to get paid off, and perhaps he will put in enough to get pot committed so when I check raise, he will have to make a crying call. I am going to double through here perhaps.

Sm: Holy cow I made my flush. He will never believe it. Now how to get a lot of money off him? I know has a good hand because he bet the turn, but his check probably means he does not have a huge hand and does not want to face a fancy raise by me. I need to bet something here that will get paid off. I don’t want to put him all in as he will probably fold and I won’t get anything. The pot is $600,000. If I bet around two-thirds, he can make a crying call and still have $250,000 left which he might just do rather than see the whole pot go to me. Maybe I should be a little less, but I think he might pay me off at $400,oo so I will bet that.

Gi: I did it. He bet. And he did bet enough so he will have to pay me off. I will just push all-in here and he will have to call the rest. Final table here I come. With a big stack.

Sm: What is this? A check-raise? Did he make a bigger flush? I hope not but it does not matter because I have real hand and I am totally pot committed. I will call and just hope he was trapping with something I can beat.

Barry: OK, there is my best guess as to what these players were thinking. I could be way off, but I suspect I am close. In any event, that is my Thought of the Week for this week