I was ready to leave, and was playing to my blind. On the last hand, I was dealt black queens and raised (UTG, of course). All folded to the cut-off, a loose kid with a visor and blue-blockers who re-raised. The small blind, a middle aged guy who played almost every hand but only raised or reraised with super-premium holdings, made it four bets. I was unhappy but made a crying call and the kid capped it (bet and four raises in Las Vegas…a great rule BTW).

Flop was a very good QdJh8d. The middle-aged guy with the large expensive looking peace medallion bet out. He must have AA or KK. Fine…I sucked out. But how best to play to eliminate the brash kid? Interestingly, the only hands that matter are AK, 10-10 and 9-9, all of which give him a gut-shot straight. If he has anything else, he is either drawing nearly dead, or he has something like a flush draw and I can’t get him out no matter what I do.

If he has a gut-shot, he is an 11:1 dog. There are 17 small bets in the pot with the lead bet on the flop. If I raise now, I will be giving him 19:2, which is not quite 11:1 but enough to call with the implied odds. But if I check and am lucky enough to avoid a death card on the turn, I should be able to raise him out on the next betting round.

So I defer raising, not because I am waiting for the bets to double so I can get more money, but because I want to optimize my chance to win the pot by getting the kid to fold.

The turn is a black three. Now the small blind (who certainly has an overpair) bets again. Now there are 10.5 big bets in the pot. I raise, making it 12.5 big bets, but forcing the kid to face 6.25:1 odds for his 11:1 shot. He folds (and later says he had pocket tens…terrible cap preflop). Other guy calls and calls again when the blank hits on the river.

Not an amazing hand, and I suspect many of you would play it this way, but perhaps without working out the odds issues and determining what sorts of hands were dangerous to you, and what tactics would be best to employ.

Anyway, it’s always nice (but very rare) to win a nice pot on your last hand.

The long awaited forum is now a reality…or at least the first version is up. Please use and enjoy. I expect to visit it often, and I hope you join me. Just click on the FORUM link on the left.

I have been enjoying High Stakes Poker on GSN. There is a lot of meat there, even for an edited show. And cash game poker is a much purer fom of the game, with many fewer hands in which two guys get all in and the viewers are treated to a dealer turning over five cards to see who wins. I TIVO most poker shows (the few I watch) and always fast forward through the to the showdowns. Real deep stack n- limit is a much more exciting game to watch (and to play in).

Today I want to discuss “running it twice.” For those unfamiliar with this concept, the players sometimes agree that the dealer will, from the point of agreement, make two different boards, and each board will play for half the pot. The cards are dealt from the same deck, which is not reshuffled. This is far more common in pot limit Omaha, where everyone seems to have 22 outs, but it does happen and is available in no-limit hold’em as well.

For some reason, players who are ahead tend to reject the offer of “running it twice” as they feel it gives the underdog twice as many chances to suck out. And it does. But it also gives the favorite a decent chance to win at least something if the underdog does draw out on the first try.

Here’s the point though. The EV does not change if you run it twice. Let’s assume there is a $500 pot and you have aces vs. kings. The kings are a 4-1 dog. If you run it once, you will win $500 four times and lose the $500 once, for an EV of $400. If you run it twice, there are two $250 pots. You will win the first one 80% of the time, as before. If you get drawn out on, you will actually win the next one almost 90% of the time (only one king left). On the other hand, if you win the first one, it increases the KK chances by two percent or so. Overall, while it balances out swings, if does not mean the KK rates to win more money from you.

In fact, if you run it thousands of times (OK, you would have to reshuffle) you will win and lose exactly the correct EV. What can be bad about that?

You CAN try this at home in your own no-limit games. Once you are all in, try to run it twice (or three times). It actually works as a benefit to both sides, and it keeps players in the game longer whether favorite or dog.

In website news, rumor has it that long awaited Forum will be arriving shortly. Also, 751 different people accessed this site in January. Thank you for taking the time to visit and I hope you continue to find it worthwhile.

Also, I promised a number of you to post here when Lee Jones article on his game-theoretical method for playing heads-up NL situations when one of the stacks hold fewer than 10 big blinds has been published in CardPlayer. This situation happens frequently at the end of Sit-n-Go tournaments. Note that this is not an optimal strategy (one that uses your opponent’s weaknesses against him). If your opponent has significant strategic weaknesses, you probably want to exploit them. But Lee Jones (with James Kittock) have developed a method that cannot be exploited. You can read it here. If you hate math and believe Lee, you can just skip to the bottom. Please read this article, as your opponents will, and there is only one correct way to deal with it.

Quick point on moving up in limits: This is not simply a function of your bankroll. It is a function of your win rate (and standard deviation, which in part tells you how much you trust your win rate). In general, if you are not beating a limit for over one bet per hour, you should not consider yourself ready to move up. That does not mean you can’t take shot when you see a juicy game at a limit above your regular one…just be prepared to drop down when the game gets tough again.

Frequently, I hear, “I want to move up so my hands will hold up…I’m tired of the (pejorative term for weak, loose players) drawing out on me.” Well, I am a believer in the theory that if you can’t beat bad players, you can’t beat good ones. Oh, you still get plenty of bad beats at the next level, whatever it is. You will get fewer because fewer of the players will be chasing, but that does not increase your earn. Take your time and learn to beat the game you are in (unless the rake is so absurd that all of the money on the table just goes to the house).