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Thought of the Week - February19, 2006
Tuesday February 21st 2006, 1:06 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

I have been enjoying High Stakes Poker on GSN. There is a lot of meat there, even for an edited show. And cash game poker is a much purer fom of the game, with many fewer hands in which two guys get all in and the viewers are treated to a dealer turning over five cards to see who wins. I TIVO most poker shows (the few I watch) and always fast forward through the to the showdowns. Real deep stack n- limit is a much more exciting game to watch (and to play in).

Today I want to discuss “running it twice.” For those unfamiliar with this concept, the players sometimes agree that the dealer will, from the point of agreement, make two different boards, and each board will play for half the pot. The cards are dealt from the same deck, which is not reshuffled. This is far more common in pot limit Omaha, where everyone seems to have 22 outs, but it does happen and is available in no-limit hold’em as well.

For some reason, players who are ahead tend to reject the offer of “running it twice” as they feel it gives the underdog twice as many chances to suck out. And it does. But it also gives the favorite a decent chance to win at least something if the underdog does draw out on the first try.

Here’s the point though. The EV does not change if you run it twice. Let’s assume there is a $500 pot and you have aces vs. kings. The kings are a 4-1 dog. If you run it once, you will win $500 four times and lose the $500 once, for an EV of $400. If you run it twice, there are two $250 pots. You will win the first one 80% of the time, as before. If you get drawn out on, you will actually win the next one almost 90% of the time (only one king left). On the other hand, if you win the first one, it increases the KK chances by two percent or so. Overall, while it balances out swings, if does not mean the KK rates to win more money from you.

In fact, if you run it thousands of times (OK, you would have to reshuffle) you will win and lose exactly the correct EV. What can be bad about that?

You CAN try this at home in your own no-limit games. Once you are all in, try to run it twice (or three times). It actually works as a benefit to both sides, and it keeps players in the game longer whether favorite or dog.