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Thought of the Week - February27, 2006
Monday February 27th 2006, 6:05 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

I was ready to leave, and was playing to my blind. On the last hand, I was dealt black queens and raised (UTG, of course). All folded to the cut-off, a loose kid with a visor and blue-blockers who re-raised. The small blind, a middle aged guy who played almost every hand but only raised or reraised with super-premium holdings, made it four bets. I was unhappy but made a crying call and the kid capped it (bet and four raises in Las Vegas…a great rule BTW).

Flop was a very good QdJh8d. The middle-aged guy with the large expensive looking peace medallion bet out. He must have AA or KK. Fine…I sucked out. But how best to play to eliminate the brash kid? Interestingly, the only hands that matter are AK, 10-10 and 9-9, all of which give him a gut-shot straight. If he has anything else, he is either drawing nearly dead, or he has something like a flush draw and I can’t get him out no matter what I do.

If he has a gut-shot, he is an 11:1 dog. There are 17 small bets in the pot with the lead bet on the flop. If I raise now, I will be giving him 19:2, which is not quite 11:1 but enough to call with the implied odds. But if I check and am lucky enough to avoid a death card on the turn, I should be able to raise him out on the next betting round.

So I defer raising, not because I am waiting for the bets to double so I can get more money, but because I want to optimize my chance to win the pot by getting the kid to fold.

The turn is a black three. Now the small blind (who certainly has an overpair) bets again. Now there are 10.5 big bets in the pot. I raise, making it 12.5 big bets, but forcing the kid to face 6.25:1 odds for his 11:1 shot. He folds (and later says he had pocket tens…terrible cap preflop). Other guy calls and calls again when the blank hits on the river.

Not an amazing hand, and I suspect many of you would play it this way, but perhaps without working out the odds issues and determining what sorts of hands were dangerous to you, and what tactics would be best to employ.

Anyway, it’s always nice (but very rare) to win a nice pot on your last hand.