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Thought of the Week - July 16, 2006
Sunday July 16th 2006, 11:51 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

We are going to continue to discuss some common NL tournament errors. To some extent, I am using this discussion to help get my thoughts together for the seminars I am doing at the PokerStars.net Hospitality Suite at the Rio during the WSOP (see related news on this page). So if you come to the seminars (please do, they are free) you will hear some of the same topics in more depth (and funnier).

Today let’s talk about incorrect bet sizing. I want to touch on a couple of easy ones: betting too much with a good hand and too little with a bluff.

Tournament poker is shooting the rapids between the twin rocks of accumulation and survival. Move too much toward either one and you are done for. Yet most players, schooled in cash games and tight play, drift naturally further toward survival. Of course, if you navigate your play toward survival, you may survive a bit longer but you will find it very difficult to win.

Two common survival-oriented plays are betting too much with a good hand and betting too little with a bluff.

Good hand first. A player gets dealt pocket jacks and two others see the flop, which comes J 7 3 with two diamonds. Since now there is a draw and he does not want his opponents to draw out, he makes a huge bet to scare them away and make sure his jacks hold up. This “works” and they fold, but he lose a huge opportunity to make some chips from opponents who might just a likely be drawing (nearly) dead, with pocket tens or AJ or 87 or two overcards or just willing to try a bluff. But fear f failure and the vision of possible losses grip this player and all he thinks is he had better win “something” from this hand, and he certainly does not want to go broke with it.

The inverse is true for bluffing. Players want to bluff but they don’t want to lose chips doing it, so they make relatively tiny bets figuring if they get called they won’t lose much. That’s true as far as it goes, but it also easier to call a small bet, and easier to recognize such a bet as a bluff and raise it even if you have nothing. If you are going to bluff, make a plausible bet that has some teeth, and at least is big enough to look like a real bet that may convince someone to fold a mediocre hand.