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Thought of the Week - August 27, 2006
Sunday August 27th 2006, 10:34 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

Back from FL. I got to play once in a home game which played 30-60 mixed as follows: two rounds of HE, two rounds of O/8, one round of Omaha hi only and one round of stud/8. Very pleasant people were playing well for the most part but very straightforwardly. One guy raised too much in the hold’em rounds (showed A3o in early position once) but I had position and I raised or called and bluffed him until he slowed down.

I also bluffed an Omaha/8 hand. I held T92A and saw a flop of J85 five ways (raised). OK, hi draw and low draw. I bet out and get some 3 callers. On the turn, the eight paired. I checked and the next guy bet. One caller to me. I should probably fold here, but I called. The river was a J. Now I bet out hoping nobody held a J or a full house, and the guy with the three eights would not want to call (I figured he was in the middle and even if he wanted to call he had to worry about the guy behind him). Anyway, it worked and I dragged a nice sized scoop. I am getting a wonderful price for this bluff and it’s not that easy for people to call it. Look for this situation in O/8 games.

On another O/8 hand I held A235 against four players and saw a flop of 258. Two pair and nut low but no real redraws except a 4, and even that probably won’t scoop because the 67 gets there. I checked and it went bet, call to me. I called along. The turn was a 2. I checked again, and it went bet, call again. Figured I probably had a good hand one way and maybe another and check raised. Two players called.

When a J fell on the river, I bet and got two callers. I immediately had a flashback to a hand I played at BARGE. I held A236 and the flop was 26T. I again check-raised the turn when a 2 came and got two callers. On the river 5 I bet and again two callers. I got one quarter as one guy had A3 and the third guy had 66 (and was worried about me having TT). Unfortunately, I articulated my flashback, saying, “I don’t feel that good about this.” I turned over my hand and surprisingly scooped. Now I felt very foolish for saying anything.

Let my bad statement be a lesson: Don’t say anything when you show a hand down. I have seen people show down a small pair saying, “You win.” This serves to further humiliate the caller when he does not win and sometimes chases him away when he realizes how poor his call was (and it might not even have been poor).

I got lucky on a few hands as well and left with a decent win. I don’t get that many chances to play in home games (though I think I play pleasantly and with good humor), so I was very happy I got invited.

My next trip is in September when I will be going to Maui for a week with my wonderful wife Betty for our 25th anniversary. Hmmm, sounds like an expensive one.

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Thought of the Week - August 20, 2006
Monday August 21st 2006, 9:04 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

Please forgive me for skipping a week. There was no time between Oroville and BARGE. I have been a busy boy.

The Oroville seminars went well. Kenna James and Lee Watkinson spoke, as did Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, Denny Axel and me. I did not know Kenna or Lee, but both were very nice and interesting people. I spoke about limit hold’em topics on Saturday and No Limit Tournaments (Survival vs. Accumulation) on Sunday.

Although the Gold Country is typically a small stakes room, they more than sold out the $20,000 guaranteed tournament on Sunday. The pros were bounties, and I went out fairly early. Only Jan Fisher made the money (nice job, Jan), though the day before, in the $10 buy-in with rebuys event, but Kenna and Lee made the money (top five).

Many thanks to Harry Thomas, Gold Country Casino manager, for inviting me. I love to give seminars and talks to poker players.

Much to my surprise, my recent column in Card Player called “Running Scared” has generated more e-mail than any other I have written. It seems to have struck a chord with some players who are going through bad streaks. I’m very pleased to have helped them.

In other column news, Rachel Croson, who was my co-author on the “Prospect Theory” columns, has agreed to co-write another column. This one will explore why tournament players ignore pot odds early in an event to emphasize survival.

In the BARGE NLHE tournament, I got all-in with AK against two callers, one with 88 and one with JJ. I figured I needed to suck out anyway so there might as well be two of them, but now I’m not sure. I am around 45% against either hand, but 35% against both. I guess this makes sense, and I suppose a 35% chance to triple through is better than a 45% chance to double through. In any case, I didn’t and so was out quickly.

Right now I’m on vacation in Florida visiting my mother in Hallandale. Back in Vegas full time for three weeks, then to Hawaii for my 25th anniversary trip.

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Oroville seminars set
Tuesday August 08th 2006, 2:27 pm
Filed under: News

I will participating in two seminars at the Gold Country Casino on Oroville, CA. Other participants will include Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, and tournament star Lee Watkinson. Seminars will be held Saturday at 10 AM and Sunday at 11 AM. After the seminar, Gold Country will hold a $20,000 guaranteed tournament, with bounties on the seminar participants (I think).

If you are in the area, please stop by, enjoy one or both of the seminars, and introduce yourself.

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Thoought of the Week - August 6, 2006
Tuesday August 08th 2006, 12:49 pm
Filed under: Tip of the Week

Today we will discuss suited connectors in no limit play. I have read and heard many players moving from limit to no limit complain that suited connectors are overrated. After all, they say, you rarely flop a good draw, and when you do, your opponent can control your pot odds so you are not getting the right price to make your draw. Finally, they argue, when you do make your draw it is hard to get paid off, so the “implied odds” no limit types are so fond of do not materialize.

These players appear to misunderstand some of the fundamental differences between limit and no limit. First, while in limit the question to ask is “how often,” in no limit it is “how much.” If you flop a huge hand rarely, but can win a big stack when you do, that becomes worthwhile in no limit though valueless in limit.

Limit players also underestimate the value of bluffing in no limit. To some extent depending on the game and opponent, bluffing is a far more powerful tool in big bet poker than it is in fixed limit. If you flop a big draw and can use it to push your opponent off his vulnerable one-pair holding, you can win many pots without improving, while still having excellent chances to improve on those occasions when you do get called. The limit guys still seem to think in terms of making their hand, not making big moves.

Finally, let’s address the problem of making your draw and not getting paid. If you are playing opponents who will not pay off when a draw gets there, you can bet them to death on the river, with or without a hand. After all, some draw gets there most of the time when your opponent is holding one pair. If any straight card or flush card is going to paralyze your opponent into checking and folding, then clearly you should be able to exploit this. And when he starts calling, you get your implied odds back.

No limit involves making moves that are not available in limit poker. If you are unwilling to understand and make them, then you should stick to limit (which is not a bad thing, just a preference) where slow and steady will win the race.

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