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Internet radio interview delayed
Tuesday September 19th 2006, 1:12 am
Filed under: News

The Internet radio interview that was scheduled for 9/28 was postponed at the last minute for technical reasons. I do not know what they are.

Tentatively, we are rescheduling the interview until October 26. I’ll post this information again as we get closer.

Also, while we are delaying things, I also missed last week’s thought. I was in Maui with Betty for our 25th anniversary and my thoughts were not on poker at all.

We will get back to business as usual on Sunday.

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Thought of the Week - September 17, 2006
Tuesday September 19th 2006, 12:45 am
Filed under: Tip of the Week

Something strange is happening to middle limit poker. Players have stopped respecting raises.

Some players have always been happy to call with inadequate values, but it has not become an epidemic. In Las Vegas, where 30-60 and 40-80 games used to be at least fairly tight, now five players in a ten-handed game is no longer cause for comment. Last week, all ten of us were in for three bets pre-flop! And it wasn’t a case of being trapped…it was raise under the gun, reraise but the next player, all call).

Once in a while, a few years ago, a player would call a raise with KQ and we would realize he wasn’t very good. Now K9o and 10-8o seem like fine hands for calling early raises to several players.

I do not know why, but I have at least a theory. Poker is a pendulum game, and players respond to what they see. If nobody is calling early raises, players will start making them with weaker hands. Opponents notice and start calling and reraising with weaker hands as well. Sooner or later, the weak early raisers figure out that they are not scaring anyone and go back to sound raises. Now calling starts to fall back (maybe).

I also suspect Internet poker has had a hand in this, as has the predominance of six-handed on-line play. Players are not making adjustments for tight raisers.

I don’t mind this, since I am still a tight raiser in early position and getting called by bad hands. While it increases my volatility, also increases my long-term earn since I have way the best of it. And, while I do liberally call and reraise bad players who raise in later positions, I am still a bit more careful about early raises. Maybe too much so on occasion.

Another oddity happened at the table recently…I had never seen this situation before. Four players (I am not in the hand) check the turn of TT64. A 9 hits on the river, and the first player checks. The next player bets and gets two callers. Now the first player folds.

The bettor turns over pocket threes. They win! The next caller had pocket deuces and the over caller had AK (what was he thinking?). The folder now complains that she held a 4 and folded the best hand. She is wondering how she could have made the second overcall. (She can’t, of course).

Notice that the 33 guy could not have won any other way. And he won the max. Anyway, for those who think 30-60 play is good these days, here is yet another example.

Which reminds me, I read sometimes that limit hold’em is dying, and that all the players (and certainly all of the bad ones) are rushing to no limit. Nothing could be further from the truth. The middle limit games are softer now than ever, and it’s not even close how much better they are than 5 years ago when there was no poker boom and no NL at all in Las Vegas.

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Thought of the Week - September 10, 2006
Tuesday September 12th 2006, 4:30 am
Filed under: Tip of the Week

First, I want to mention with pride that our forum now has 101 registered members! Thank you to all of you who joined ; the rest of you thousand or so visitors please feel free to join, post and respond. I think our little forum by and large has some of the best quality questions and answers (not just mine) and a very high signal-to-noise ratio.

Here is the basis for another column: Calling with ace high. Actually this comes up a lot and it is one of the errors I used to make frequently (and still am sometimes guilty of, though less often.) Here is a hand: After a weak limper enters, a decent player who is also a very frequent bluffer raises. I have AK and three-bet. All fold back to the limper who hops the fence, and the initial raises calls. Flop is Q83 rainbow. Both players check to me, and, because I hate queens when I hold AK, and because I can make a play later with position if I feel like I should, I check it back (do not try this at home…betting here is the recommended play, but I have been making a lot of experimental plays lately with considerable success).

Now, an 8 comes on the turn, putting a second diamond on the board. Weak player checks, and the next guy bets. This means absolutely nothing so I raise to get the limper out. Remarkably, he calls two cold quickly. The other guy calls as well.

OK, what’s happening? If the weak player had a Q, he would have led on the turn. If he had an 8, he would reraise (or at least think about it). Most likely he has picked up a diamond draw, and wants to see if he makes it (or he has quads, but I dismiss this).

The river is an offsuit 3. Both players check. Now normally I check AK here, as it is hard to believe anyone can call with a worse hand. However, since someone might think I have represented a set of queens (and I would have played a set of queens this way), it is possible that the weak player could lay down something like 4d3d, which beats me. Also, the original raiser might lay down AK, which would otherwise be splitting the pot. I bet out so no one wins or ties by accident.

The weal player folds and the other guy calls. I show my AK, and it wins. Actually, I thought it was likely the best hand of the two of us, but I did not think it would be if called. He shows AT, and tells me he “knew I had nothing.” He also tells me he should have raised. I agree (but do not tell him this), but I’m not sure I would have folded, given what I think of his play. Of course, that’s easier to say once I have seen his hand, but what hand could have to check-raise the river that would have flat called my raise on the turn?

Partly I told you this story because it was interesting (and I won!). But partly I want to tell you that calling on the river with ace high is frequently an error. If you feel you looking at a bluff, you should raise to make sure you don’t lose accidentally to a slightly better hand that was bluffing but you can’t beat.

Yes, that play is more expensive when it loses, and also costs you the glory of turning over a nothing hand which beats a bluff. But it still the best play.

And there is still another reason. I recently made a call with Q-hi that won, and I had to show it down. The opponent quit. If I had raised, he would have folded and never known I had such a good read on him.

OK, that’s it for this week. Raise if you are making super-thin value calls of presumptive bluffs.

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2005 WPPC DVD Set Available
Friday September 08th 2006, 7:34 am
Filed under: News

Better late than never, the 2005 World Poker Players’ Conference DVD Set is now available. I do a one-hour seminar on it on the topic, “How To Make One Big Bet per Hour.” Also on this DVD are Mark Seif, Lee Jones (presenting his heads-up Sit N Go strategy), Clonie Gowan, Kenna James, Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, Mark Gregorich and Mike Caro. Price is $39.95 plus $2.00 shipping. I make no money from the sale of this DVD. If you wish to purchase it, simply go here.

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