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Thought of the Week - September 10, 2006
Tuesday September 12th 2006, 4:30 am
Filed under: Tip of the Week

First, I want to mention with pride that our forum now has 101 registered members! Thank you to all of you who joined ; the rest of you thousand or so visitors please feel free to join, post and respond. I think our little forum by and large has some of the best quality questions and answers (not just mine) and a very high signal-to-noise ratio.

Here is the basis for another column: Calling with ace high. Actually this comes up a lot and it is one of the errors I used to make frequently (and still am sometimes guilty of, though less often.) Here is a hand: After a weak limper enters, a decent player who is also a very frequent bluffer raises. I have AK and three-bet. All fold back to the limper who hops the fence, and the initial raises calls. Flop is Q83 rainbow. Both players check to me, and, because I hate queens when I hold AK, and because I can make a play later with position if I feel like I should, I check it back (do not try this at home…betting here is the recommended play, but I have been making a lot of experimental plays lately with considerable success).

Now, an 8 comes on the turn, putting a second diamond on the board. Weak player checks, and the next guy bets. This means absolutely nothing so I raise to get the limper out. Remarkably, he calls two cold quickly. The other guy calls as well.

OK, what’s happening? If the weak player had a Q, he would have led on the turn. If he had an 8, he would reraise (or at least think about it). Most likely he has picked up a diamond draw, and wants to see if he makes it (or he has quads, but I dismiss this).

The river is an offsuit 3. Both players check. Now normally I check AK here, as it is hard to believe anyone can call with a worse hand. However, since someone might think I have represented a set of queens (and I would have played a set of queens this way), it is possible that the weak player could lay down something like 4d3d, which beats me. Also, the original raiser might lay down AK, which would otherwise be splitting the pot. I bet out so no one wins or ties by accident.

The weal player folds and the other guy calls. I show my AK, and it wins. Actually, I thought it was likely the best hand of the two of us, but I did not think it would be if called. He shows AT, and tells me he “knew I had nothing.” He also tells me he should have raised. I agree (but do not tell him this), but I’m not sure I would have folded, given what I think of his play. Of course, that’s easier to say once I have seen his hand, but what hand could have to check-raise the river that would have flat called my raise on the turn?

Partly I told you this story because it was interesting (and I won!). But partly I want to tell you that calling on the river with ace high is frequently an error. If you feel you looking at a bluff, you should raise to make sure you don’t lose accidentally to a slightly better hand that was bluffing but you can’t beat.

Yes, that play is more expensive when it loses, and also costs you the glory of turning over a nothing hand which beats a bluff. But it still the best play.

And there is still another reason. I recently made a call with Q-hi that won, and I had to show it down. The opponent quit. If I had raised, he would have folded and never known I had such a good read on him.

OK, that’s it for this week. Raise if you are making super-thin value calls of presumptive bluffs.