Here is another hand that will likely be a column. I held KhQs in the cutoff in a $60-$120 game. I young up-and-coming pro (“Shirley’) limped in early position. She does this a lot, and I don’t think it is correct very often, as you know. Everyone folded to me, and I raised to kill the blinds. And excellent player in the big blind (“Pat”) called and Shirley re-raised.

This limp reraise from a conservative player who has not made this play before (after about 30 hours at the same table) is almost certainly aces, and I determined to treat it as such. Should I call or fold? I will be getting 8:1 in the highly likely event that Pat calls as well, and I am playing against a face-up hand. Even though I know I am way behind, I am now getting a price to see the flop (of course, has she open raised I would have folded, but you need to take circumstances as they are). The flop came Jh7h3h, so I had a K-high flush draw and little else.

Pat bet out immediately. What can this bet be? We need to start by assuming that Pat also knows Shirley has aces. He would hardly lead with a hand he knows is beat, so he must beat aces. The board is too disjoint for him to have two-pair, so he has a set or a flush. Can he have a nut flush draw? If he did, he would have checked, hoping Shirley bet and I called so he could get three-way action.

Shirley raised. I was not sure Shirley understood how well Pat played, and how transparent her pre-flop play was, but I felt at this point my second nut draw merited a (nervous) call. Not surprisingly, Pat three-bet. This tilted the scales toward a flush, since I had called, and Pat had to know I knew about Shirley’s aces, so I must have a big heart or better or a set myself. I suspect with a set he would have waited for the turn, checking and calling if a heart fell, and check-raising Shirley (and me) if a blank hit.

Shirley and I called. Indeed, a blank hit the turn and Pat bet out. Shirley called. Now I had a somewhat unusually problem. I knew what Pat had, and I thought he had made it very clear. But the question was, did Shirley know? The odds of her having the ace of hearts knowing she ha aces was 50%. But she should have realized by now that if she did not hold the ace of hearts, she was drawing dead and should fold. But did she actually understand what was happening? If she did, then I was drawing dead and should fold. If she did not, then I had a 50-50 chance to have the best draw.

By that time, the pot held 11 big bets. Since Pat had a flush, I had seven hearts to make my hand, but only half the time (if Shirley would call here with any two aces). That’s an average of 3.5 outs for 43 unknown cards (we know my hand, the board, Pat’s two hearts and one of Shirley’s aces). So I am getting the right price if Shirley is not reading this situation correctly, and drawing dead if she is).

Because there had to be some chance that she was, and there was a small chance that Pat was holding the nut flush and playing it strongly from the get-go, I felt I had to fold here, in spite of the large pot.

As it happened, the river was a heart and Pat won with his 10-high flush, as Shirley’s aces did not include the ace of trump. I was surprised that a pro like her would have either mis-read or not bothered to read the hands and situation, but my mis-read of her cost me a pot in that instance. Perhaps I should have realized it what she raised on the flop, but I didn’t.