I have not yet resumed lessons or playing. I will post here when I do. Otherwise, I will stop with health updates and just post poker as I can.

Today we will do another A-K hand. It has some similarities with the last one, but also considerable differences. As always, situations dictate plays, and most situational plays are rife with danger. I do not mind the danger (after all, I did decide to be a professional gambler), and understand full that many times my plays will back fire. I just hope to make more good ones than bad ones over the course of a year.

Background As always, hands do not exist in glass cases to be examine, but must be looked at in context. While the context of this hand is complex, two things stand out to me. the first is that the player in the two seat is a frequent bluffer. Recently, he bluffed several times and was caught each time. Then a hand arose in which after a middle position limper, I raised in the cutoff (nine seat of a ten-handed table) with K-J. he button cold-called, the big blind (bluffer0 called and the limper called. Four to the flop of 9-6-3. After two checks, I elected to check. After a deuce on the turn, we all (very surprisingly) checked again. A three on the river brought all checks and, in an upset, my K-J was the best hand.
I know most of you would have bet the flop or at least the turn. I would do so about 40% of the time, but I do not automatically be when I flop nothing against three opponents, at least two of whom have shown some strength. I strive for balance in all parts of my game, and autobetting in any situation does not qualify as very balanced in my view. will also check some very powerful hands in a situation like this, check-raising the button or slow-playing until the turn.

The other interesting thing was that you could visibly see the bluffer seething. Here was finally a great bluffing opportunity where almost any bet would have won, and he had not tried to bluff after several failures.

The hand. An orbit later, I held a black A-K in the cutoff. Like deja vu, the middle player limped, I raised, the button cold called, the big blind called as did the limper. the flop was 10-7- 6 all red. After two checks, I checked again. the button (whom I decided I could trust since he did not make any button bets on the last hand) also checked. The turn was a 4 of diamonds, putting two hearts and two diamonds on the board. Now the bluffer bet and the next hand folded.

It does not take a genius to work out to raise here, as the chances the bluffer is in in fact bluffing are huge. The board is full of draws, the bluffer is chomping at the bit, and he plays a huge variety of hands, many of which will be be draws. It does take some tolerance for volatility, which I do have, so I raised.

Inters tingly, I found out later that the button had the nut heart draw. Also interestingly, he folded. Was this correct?
It’s very close. He is getting just over 3.5:1 (counting the small blind) to cold call two bets on the turn with no guarantee that it ends the betting. He probably has nine outs, but may have only seven as my play is consistent with a flopped set. Also, as we have seen, he is trying to play a low volatility game (nothing really wrong with that), and a call here could be very expensive. Finally, a cold of of two bets here would be seen by everyone at the table as a flush draw,, and his implied odds are almost certainly one bet or less. Nor can he even count on a call from the bluffer to add to his chances, since he may be aware that the guy bluffs, and may not want to continue a pure bluff in the teeth of a raise and cold call. Tough situation. It is rare that one will lay down a nut flush draw in limit hold’em, but this may be a correct laydown (I would probably call because of the potential extra out that ace represents in case the raiser had chosen to slow-play K-K or Q-Q to elicit a bet from the bluffer).
OK, the flush threw the hand away, the bluffer called. the river was a small heart, breaking the heart of the button. The bluffer had Q-2 of diamonds and checked the river. I checked behind and won.

Conclusion Checking the flop and raising the turn won this pot for me,. Had I bet the flop, I cannot envision a sequence leading to victory. Playing the bluffer to be bluffing was not an especially insightful play, but you still have to make it. And I got a bit lucky that the nut flush draw guy was very conservative on this day.

I am now out of the hospital after an eight day stay. Still kind of weak. No diagnosis was ever made, but I was running high fevers which eventually responded to treatment (or time). I am still on meds and going to a few docs, but I'’ll be OK.

I want to thank everyone who sent well wishes, and included me in their thoughts or prayers. Everything helps. Also thanks for continuing to use the forum. I shall be back there very soon to add my thoughts to the others.

I am sure we have lost momentum on the web site, and I will try in the coming weeks as my strength grows to build that back up.

In the meantime, here is one of the long promised A-K hands. It is not much, but I found it interesting.

Background Hands rarely stand on their own in a vacuum, and this one is no exception. The player on my right, a pleasant fellow and occasional Las Visitor from Australia, was an OK player with a tendency to raise quite a bit too loosely. I tend to punish guys like like that with a blistering variety of three-bets, especially when I am in late position, and this evening was no exception. I must have already three-bet him preflop five times or more, winning almost all of them (mostly when no one else called and he folded the flop).

The hand On this hand, he raised two off the button and I of course three-bet from the cutoff with my A-K. I would have done this with a wide variety of hands, and was pleased to see that I finally had something actually three-bet worthy. It folded around to the big blind who looked annoyed, mumbled to his neighbor something like, “There he goes again,” and called, as did the player on my right.

The flop was 10-8-3 rainbow, and both players checked to me. Let me shorten this a bit by saying I normally bet against two here, and I did so this time. The big blind check-raised and the other guy folded. I called to await developments. Before I continue, please take a look and think about what the worst possible card for me would be on the turn.

Done? OK, if you said a nine, you are correct. Yes, there are other bad cards, but a nine is clearly the worst. Let’s see why.

Assuming the check-raise on the flop was not made on air, my opponent in the big blind rates to have either a pair or a draw. Let’s look at his possible draws. If he is open ended, he has J-9 or 9-7. If he has a gut shot, he has Q-J, Q-9, J-7, 9-6 or 7-6. Not all of these are equally likely of course, but that’s the list. The common quality of all of these holdings is that a nine gives him a better hand than me, even if by accident (meaning he did not make the hand he was hoping for).

OK, so the turn was a nine and he bet out. I started to fold because the nine was so bad, but his preflop mumble resounded in my head. If he thought I was making on of my many moves (as he saw it), he would play this way with far more hands than he normally would. He might even have been determined to take this one away no matter what he held.

I actually spend more time on the turn trying to convince myself to flop than I ever do. I frequently judge my actions by where I am on the scale of hands I would make the play I did with (bad syntax, sorry), and I was on the high end of my three-bet scale in this specific situation. But mostly, I could not get away from his comment. It just stuck with me. Eventually, I called the turn, and again on the river when a blank came.

I do not like called with A-K on the river, preferring to raise in case he is messing with a hand like 5-5 and might lay it down if I raise. In this case, he was way too skeptical, and would not have honored any raise I made, I thought. Si I just called.

Conclusion Since this is appearing here, you probably assume I won. OK, I did!. He showed down A-J.

I could just as easily have lost, of course, as he could have had A-10 or anything else. The successful call was very good for my credibility for the rest of the session, though.

Two more thoughts. First, had he played without comment, he certainly would have won. He gave me a reason to be suspicious and then made a suspicious play. Do not tell your neighbors what you are thinking, especially during a hand.

Second, I hope you were able to do the exercise to know that the most dangerous turn card was for that flop. You should always try to know that as you plan your play.

Barry was in the hospital, and he still is in the hospital. He will be in the hospital for an unknown period of time. Please enjoy using the forum and Barry will post here as soon as he possibly can. Thank you!
- Betty Tanenbaum, the wife

Sorry faithful readers, I am ill right now and cannot write a thought. I may fill one in later.