I have not yet resumed lessons or playing. I will post here when I do. Otherwise, I will stop with health updates and just post poker as I can.

Today we will do another A-K hand. It has some similarities with the last one, but also considerable differences. As always, situations dictate plays, and most situational plays are rife with danger. I do not mind the danger (after all, I did decide to be a professional gambler), and understand full that many times my plays will back fire. I just hope to make more good ones than bad ones over the course of a year.

Background As always, hands do not exist in glass cases to be examine, but must be looked at in context. While the context of this hand is complex, two things stand out to me. the first is that the player in the two seat is a frequent bluffer. Recently, he bluffed several times and was caught each time. Then a hand arose in which after a middle position limper, I raised in the cutoff (nine seat of a ten-handed table) with K-J. he button cold-called, the big blind (bluffer0 called and the limper called. Four to the flop of 9-6-3. After two checks, I elected to check. After a deuce on the turn, we all (very surprisingly) checked again. A three on the river brought all checks and, in an upset, my K-J was the best hand.
I know most of you would have bet the flop or at least the turn. I would do so about 40% of the time, but I do not automatically be when I flop nothing against three opponents, at least two of whom have shown some strength. I strive for balance in all parts of my game, and autobetting in any situation does not qualify as very balanced in my view. will also check some very powerful hands in a situation like this, check-raising the button or slow-playing until the turn.

The other interesting thing was that you could visibly see the bluffer seething. Here was finally a great bluffing opportunity where almost any bet would have won, and he had not tried to bluff after several failures.

The hand. An orbit later, I held a black A-K in the cutoff. Like deja vu, the middle player limped, I raised, the button cold called, the big blind called as did the limper. the flop was 10-7- 6 all red. After two checks, I checked again. the button (whom I decided I could trust since he did not make any button bets on the last hand) also checked. The turn was a 4 of diamonds, putting two hearts and two diamonds on the board. Now the bluffer bet and the next hand folded.

It does not take a genius to work out to raise here, as the chances the bluffer is in in fact bluffing are huge. The board is full of draws, the bluffer is chomping at the bit, and he plays a huge variety of hands, many of which will be be draws. It does take some tolerance for volatility, which I do have, so I raised.

Inters tingly, I found out later that the button had the nut heart draw. Also interestingly, he folded. Was this correct?
It’s very close. He is getting just over 3.5:1 (counting the small blind) to cold call two bets on the turn with no guarantee that it ends the betting. He probably has nine outs, but may have only seven as my play is consistent with a flopped set. Also, as we have seen, he is trying to play a low volatility game (nothing really wrong with that), and a call here could be very expensive. Finally, a cold of of two bets here would be seen by everyone at the table as a flush draw,, and his implied odds are almost certainly one bet or less. Nor can he even count on a call from the bluffer to add to his chances, since he may be aware that the guy bluffs, and may not want to continue a pure bluff in the teeth of a raise and cold call. Tough situation. It is rare that one will lay down a nut flush draw in limit hold’em, but this may be a correct laydown (I would probably call because of the potential extra out that ace represents in case the raiser had chosen to slow-play K-K or Q-Q to elicit a bet from the bluffer).
OK, the flush threw the hand away, the bluffer called. the river was a small heart, breaking the heart of the button. The bluffer had Q-2 of diamonds and checked the river. I checked behind and won.

Conclusion Checking the flop and raising the turn won this pot for me,. Had I bet the flop, I cannot envision a sequence leading to victory. Playing the bluffer to be bluffing was not an especially insightful play, but you still have to make it. And I got a bit lucky that the nut flush draw guy was very conservative on this day.