Filed under: Tip of the Week
Happy Thanksgiving! I’m sorry the site was down during much of the holiday weekend.
I think I have written similar stuff before, but it is easier to explain again than check all of my previous writings.
The question is: Several players limp in (in a low limit game, but that does not matter to me), and you have A- K offsuit on the button. Everyone on my forum, and it seems, most experts as well, advocate raising here. The argument seems to be: “You probably have the best hand; punish the foolish limpers. Make ‘em pay to play with inferior hands. ” There is also an argument about making them make an error early.
I disagree, which I concede probably makes me wrong. However, I would like to state my reasoning, and since this is my site, it seems like a good place to do so.
1. You have a power hand. In my book, I define starting hands as power hands, volume hands, and hybrid hands. A-K offsuit is a classic power hand, in that it plays best against a small field. One of the main reasons for raising preflop with A-K is to limit the field. On the button with several limpers that goal is unachievable. Of course, I rely on my definitions for this point, so it may be self-serving. If you do not think of A-K as a power hand in those terms, you will disagree.
2. A-K is also a drawing hand. Two-thirds of the time, you will not have anything of value after the flop, and will be well behind in a large field, in which one or more players will have made one pair of better. Unless you flop a gutshot or flush draw (flop all one suit), you will have zero clean outs. If you raise and the pot is now large, you may think you will have a reason to bet, or take one off by calling, when you really have no idea if any cards will win for you.
3. The other third of the time, you will make one pair (or better, of course, but the goal of playing A-K is to make top-pair-top-kicker and have that hold up. If you raise, opponents will be leery, and, while they will chase, you will not see bets into you for opponents with top-pair and lesser kickers. They will call along in many games, but they will not help you eliminate players.
From a strategic standpoint, you would be happier of someone else with top pair-weak kicker bet so you could raise and chase out some players who could stay in to beat you, or force them to call two bets into a smallish pot, perhaps incorrectly, to chase. By not raising preflop, you greatly increase the chances that someone will bet for you and allow you to make this raise.
Let’s look at the math for the raise and not-raise case. With no raise, assume seven player before the flop so there are seven bets. Not you hit the flop, and, after a few checks, there is a bet and a call. Now you raise, offering the next opponent 5.5:1 on his call. Even if no one bets, you are offering only 8:1.
Had you raised preflop, there would be 14 bets before the flop. Now everyone checks to you, especially because there is an ace or king on the board, and you bet, offering the next opponent 15:1. He is now correct to call you with many chasing hands, including pure gutshots and even backdoor draws. Yes, he needs to fear a raise and so on, but he is not making a huge error with his call. You only make money when opponents make errors.
4. While we are on errors, others assert the opponent are making errors by calling your preflop raise. Is this true?
Well, assume they in fact have worse hands (not always true and many opponents in those games limp with pairs, even large ones). Before we decide, let’s look at a simplified case. If a $10$20 game, you raise UTG with A-K offsuit. the next player has 9-6 suited. Is he wrong to call? Actually, no. If he puts in $40 and wins 40% of the time [his equity against A-K), his call is +EV, not counting what may happen behind him. We know he should fold in real life, but that is because he does not know you have A-K, and because more raises may await him after he calls. But on the surface, he is getting the right price to call.
Now let’s look at the case where you raise several limpers from the button. There is already a large pot, opponents know no one is folding, so they have preflop implied odds of 13:1 barring a surprise reraise. While some hands are now underdogs, most are not making an error by calling here.
5. It also affects your play. You raise preflop and get the usual six callers. Now, though, instead for everyone checking to you when you miss the flop, someone bets. There is a call and you are now getting 16:1 to call. This is quite attractive, and you do have two lovely overcards.The problem is you have no idea if you are drawing live to either, both, or neither. You could be drawing dead to a set, drawing thin if, for example, on player has A-x and has already hit his kicker, or drawing completely live. The odds seem good, but you rate to lose some money when you miss, and a lot of money when you hit but were not live. Does the money you will make when you hit and your hand stands up worth it? Possibly, but you will get a lot less action when you hit (as everyone already puts you on A-K) than you will give when make a pair and it is no good.
OK, that’s my case. Perhaps it is just because I prefer strategic play to bashing around, and perhaps I just hate being in situations that are quite difficult to read. One pair hands fare poorly in large fields, and do not see how making the pot larger before you know what you have makes that any better.
